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all those same polls that show president obama leading and claims to correct the bias, turning romney deficits into commanding romney leads. the idea behind is it simple. all polls base the outcome on what pollsters believe the electorate will look like, how many democrats versus how many republicans they think will actually turn out. getting that partisan makeup wrong can tilt the predictions. the people that don't believe the polls say this time, pollsters think the 2012 electorate will look a lot like 2008 and this they say is wrong. notice i said this time. back in 2004, democrats complained that the polls which showed george w. bush leading were overestimating the number of republicans who would vote. they were wrong. the polls were right. in 2000, al gore said don't believe the polls, polls showed him losing narrowly. polls were right. in fact, it's hard to find an example of the polls on average getting it wrong unless you go back to 1948, when they predicted thomas dewey defeated president harry truman. cnn political contributor ari fleischer joins us. he's an occasionally unpaid commu
all those same polls that show president obama leading and claims to correct the bias, turning romney deficits into commanding romney leads. the idea behind is it simple. all polls base the outcome on what pollsters believe the electorate will look like, how many democrats versus how many republicans they think will actually turn out. getting that partisan makeup wrong can tilt the predictions. the people that don't believe the polls say this time, pollsters think the 2012 electorate will look...
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why the deficit's been above $1 trillion now four years running, and maybe if the moderators get into it, what's happening in the middle east, and what they think they can do about it. i think that governor romney's plan's going to be to try to stick to the substance because i think the country knows we need a change. >> i'm only half joking about kicking out of the room. metaphorically, a lot of republicans want to see mitt romney do just that to the president. they want to see him verbally beat him up and make the points that you've made crystal clear and win the argument. but there's another argument that says that one of mitt romney's problems is he's not likeable enough and he may need to turn on the kind of easy ronald reagan charm which he deployed so successfully in debate. it's a fine line, isn't it, between being hard and aggressive and making a point, but also coming over as likeable. >> right. and piers, really, the way to deal with that, and i think this is true for any debate but especially one where the stakes are so high for the country, is to stick to what you want to
why the deficit's been above $1 trillion now four years running, and maybe if the moderators get into it, what's happening in the middle east, and what they think they can do about it. i think that governor romney's plan's going to be to try to stick to the substance because i think the country knows we need a change. >> i'm only half joking about kicking out of the room. metaphorically, a lot of republicans want to see mitt romney do just that to the president. they want to see him...
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. >> mitt romney leads according to our poll, on unemployment and the deficit. let me ask you this, ben, because one thing our viewers may assume is that democratic base is now energized and the convention is now partly responsible for that. rece recently, jim -- our new poll, how do you feel strength of support, 72% of voters are strongly excited. that's a virtual tie and extremely or very enthusiastic about voting in november, 65% of republicans. 64% of democrats. does that worry you? in '08, part of the reason the president won was his people were way more enthusiastic than john mccain's. >> we heard enthusiasm on the republicans side last year and now it's down to turn out. people are voting right now. today. they're starting to vote tomorrow this ohio. our supporters are camped out at polling places and thousands more democrats voted in iowa last week than republicans. that's the way we've built this organization on the ground for the past 500 days. we're ip venvesting in a ground organization. >> we'll hit pause there, but going to be talking a lot to both
. >> mitt romney leads according to our poll, on unemployment and the deficit. let me ask you this, ben, because one thing our viewers may assume is that democratic base is now energized and the convention is now partly responsible for that. rece recently, jim -- our new poll, how do you feel strength of support, 72% of voters are strongly excited. that's a virtual tie and extremely or very enthusiastic about voting in november, 65% of republicans. 64% of democrats. does that worry you?...
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there will still be a substantial deficit, but it will be smaller. president obama's main contribution to this $16 billion debt, which is a trillion dollar debt, a ten-year figure projecting out ten years was the stimulus bill, which is $800 billion, which i believe was a good thing to do. i think that might be bigger without it. it kept people working and paying taxes and off the government payrolls. because it created new jobs. if you look at his annual spending budgets, they are about 2% increase. that's less than the rate of inflation. so, i think that the reason that i believe he'll win re-election is we are beginning to recover. we have a higher rate of job creation since the recession bottomed out in the middle of 2009 than in the previous eight years. and, we are moving in the right direction and the policies he's advocated are going to produce good economic results. if people thought it was like another recession, he would be in trouble. it's not like another recession. they know it. >> people say the paralysis in washington, the inability t
there will still be a substantial deficit, but it will be smaller. president obama's main contribution to this $16 billion debt, which is a trillion dollar debt, a ten-year figure projecting out ten years was the stimulus bill, which is $800 billion, which i believe was a good thing to do. i think that might be bigger without it. it kept people working and paying taxes and off the government payrolls. because it created new jobs. if you look at his annual spending budgets, they are about 2%...
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there have been so many economic failure failures, the failure to create jobs or bring down the deficit. >> kevin, i want to get to some smalls we have on latino likely voters, but i want to quickly ask you, why did governor romney wait to this point to bring this forward on immigration policy? >> well, kate, we've had a lot of discussions on this issue. i think this was an opportunity where a question was asked, specifically on that question, and the governor answered it. he did talk in expansive terms about immigration, what he would do to modernize the immigration system, how it's an important part of our economy. during his recent interview that he had with univision. and i think it will continue to be a part of this debate. >> kevin, i want to show you, we put up on our screen for our viewers some new polling we have out today, showing that president obama really has an overwhelming lead among likely latino voters. 70 to 26 for governor romney. are now aggressively courting the latino vote, are you expecting to get anywhere near or beyond what senator mccain got back in 2008, which
there have been so many economic failure failures, the failure to create jobs or bring down the deficit. >> kevin, i want to get to some smalls we have on latino likely voters, but i want to quickly ask you, why did governor romney wait to this point to bring this forward on immigration policy? >> well, kate, we've had a lot of discussions on this issue. i think this was an opportunity where a question was asked, specifically on that question, and the governor answered it. he did...
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the last time anyone came back from a four-point deficit was in 1999 and that was on home soil. and that was a stunning final day then. but for the europeans to come over to the american soil and to achieve this victory, it's truly historic. it was not expected at all. the americans looked like they were going to be racing favorites and certainties on the final day. all they needed from a possible 12 points was 4 1/2. they only managed 3 1/2. so it was left to the europeans to lead from the front, leading by example with an incredible spirit and an incredible belief. and they won the first five matches. and the united states could not respond. tiger woods had a very poor week here and, indeed, the who american team were left dumb struck on the final day after combining so well on the first tw days and displaying wonderful team spirit. but it did not fire at all on the last day. >> i didn't know golfers could get that excited. talk about amazing. let's talk about rory mcilroy, he won a big match, but he almost missed his tee time, which is, of course, kind of embarrassing. >> rep
the last time anyone came back from a four-point deficit was in 1999 and that was on home soil. and that was a stunning final day then. but for the europeans to come over to the american soil and to achieve this victory, it's truly historic. it was not expected at all. the americans looked like they were going to be racing favorites and certainties on the final day. all they needed from a possible 12 points was 4 1/2. they only managed 3 1/2. so it was left to the europeans to lead from the...
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that's been a huge deficit for him over the course of this campaign. no specifics, no details. so i think that is part of the burden he carries next wednesday night. >> i suppose one of the problems for you is that barack obama is in the strange position of being the quite clear favorite. i don't think many incumbent presidents have that going into debates but people say i saw a poll this morning, he's up nearly 60% of americans believe obama will win the debates. that's always a rather precarious place to go into a debate, isn't it, as the clear favorite because expectation levels can often exceed performance. >> that is definitely the case. you know, the president -- we're taking this debate very seriously. we know that there's a certain expectation on our side. we also know what history tells us, that challengers normally win the first debate, just by the fact that they're standing on the stage with the president. that elevates them. and they normally come into these things as underdogs so we're coming into this debate very realistic that mitt romney is likely to win, if he
that's been a huge deficit for him over the course of this campaign. no specifics, no details. so i think that is part of the burden he carries next wednesday night. >> i suppose one of the problems for you is that barack obama is in the strange position of being the quite clear favorite. i don't think many incumbent presidents have that going into debates but people say i saw a poll this morning, he's up nearly 60% of americans believe obama will win the debates. that's always a rather...
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who's better equipped to deal with the deficit and debt. the more they play to the religious right on social issues, the more they risk alienating these centrist voters. >> did you disagree? >> absolutely. the latest polls show that people trust obama more now with the economy. this economy issue solely is a losing issue for romney as the economy improves, but also it fails to reck thiz people care about other things other than just the economy. >> pastor jeffers, if i may, i was making the distinction about not just the economy, but deficit and debt. so, i appreciate your desire to have your nominee really focus on playing to the base in the religious right. that is your prerogative, but you can't rewrite polls to say that's a winning strategy when it comes to reaching out. >> what i'm saying to you is that i think the hunt for these elusive independent or undecided voters out there is going to be a losing strategy. it was in 2008 for john mccain. i think it will be this time. i'm not saying he has to make these social issues the heart of
who's better equipped to deal with the deficit and debt. the more they play to the religious right on social issues, the more they risk alienating these centrist voters. >> did you disagree? >> absolutely. the latest polls show that people trust obama more now with the economy. this economy issue solely is a losing issue for romney as the economy improves, but also it fails to reck thiz people care about other things other than just the economy. >> pastor jeffers, if i may, i...
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>> we're going to do it by responsibly dealing with these deficits while leaving money to invest and those things we need to grow -- education, research and development, clean energy technology. >> those aren't sort of specific proposals. what i'm asking you is -- >> let's talk about -- >> they haven't passed. >> 100,000 new math and science teachers. we need that to move forward as a country. >> that's a total, though, right? >> educating -- training two million new workers in our community colleges in conjunction with business to fill jobs that are open right now. boosting american manufacturing by ending the tax break that sends jobs overseas and giving tax incentives to companies that start manufacturing businesses here. these are specific tangible proposals and, candy, i believe that they will pass because i believe the american people are supportive of that. >> but they haven't passed. >> it will be rendered on november 6 wrth. >> no, they haven't. >> for two years jobs -- >> some of the specific proposals haven't, but, candy, think about the logical extension of what you're sa
>> we're going to do it by responsibly dealing with these deficits while leaving money to invest and those things we need to grow -- education, research and development, clean energy technology. >> those aren't sort of specific proposals. what i'm asking you is -- >> let's talk about -- >> they haven't passed. >> 100,000 new math and science teachers. we need that to move forward as a country. >> that's a total, though, right? >> educating -- training...
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there will still be a substantial deficit but it will be much smaller. president obama's main contribution to this $16 billion debt which is -- a $1 trillion debt which is a ten-year figure, projecting out ten years, was the stimulus bill which was $800 billion, which i believe was a good thing to do. i think that that might even be even bigger without it, because it kept people working and paying taxes and off the government payrolls and because it created new jobs and infrastructure in energy. if you look at his annual spending budgets, they are about 2% increases. that's less than the rate of inflation. so i think that the reason that i believe he will win re-election is that we're beginning to recover. we've had a higher rate of job creation since the recession bottomed out, the collapse bottomed out in the middle of 2009, than in the previous eight years, and we are moving in the right direction, and the policies he has advocated are more likely to present a good economic result. that's why if people thought this was just like another recession, he
there will still be a substantial deficit but it will be much smaller. president obama's main contribution to this $16 billion debt which is -- a $1 trillion debt which is a ten-year figure, projecting out ten years, was the stimulus bill which was $800 billion, which i believe was a good thing to do. i think that that might even be even bigger without it, because it kept people working and paying taxes and off the government payrolls and because it created new jobs and infrastructure in...
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. >> i think the leadership question tonight, if it's -- on domestic policy, is going to be the deficit issue, the fiscal management of the country, and in talking to romney advisers, that's sort of the key thing they are going to point out in terms of leadership, talk about commander in chief at the next debate. but this debate is about fiscal management and who is going to be better for me in the next four years. >> very quickly, david. >> first 45 minutes of this, the most important 45 minutes of the campaign, all about the economy. i've known jim lehrer for a long time. he won't be constricted by the -- he could well go into libya and what's been happening in the second part of the debate. >> not just the first 45 minutes are important, after the debate, our job, the fact checking, reality checking, wolf, a little bit on that. >> we certainly do, anderson. a very impressive reality check team to determine if the candidates are telling us the truth tonight. john berman is one of the team's leaders, joining us now. john, you have been fact checking candidates' recent claims on the cam
. >> i think the leadership question tonight, if it's -- on domestic policy, is going to be the deficit issue, the fiscal management of the country, and in talking to romney advisers, that's sort of the key thing they are going to point out in terms of leadership, talk about commander in chief at the next debate. but this debate is about fiscal management and who is going to be better for me in the next four years. >> very quickly, david. >> first 45 minutes of this, the most...
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so that added to the national deficit. and one other thing that we should talk about in terms of the national deficit, part of it is that we're not bringing in as much revenue as we should be bringing in to pay for all the things, the services and programs that the american people continue to desire. there's no question under this president that we've seen, you know, the most significant budget cuts also in the history of country. discretionary spending is at its lowest in 60 years. taxes are also at their lowest. but the one thing that the democrats have not done, we haven't walked away from the table. we haven't pointed fingers and said it's their fault. we're all in this together. it's time republicans roll up their sleeves and come to the table so we can fix this problem and solve our many other great challenges before the end of the year and the american people can get back to work. that's what they desire us to do. >> i think both of these presidential candidates are gearing up for their one presidential debate in oc
so that added to the national deficit. and one other thing that we should talk about in terms of the national deficit, part of it is that we're not bringing in as much revenue as we should be bringing in to pay for all the things, the services and programs that the american people continue to desire. there's no question under this president that we've seen, you know, the most significant budget cuts also in the history of country. discretionary spending is at its lowest in 60 years. taxes are...
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issues like cutting taxes without ballooning the deficit or burdening the middle class. the romney campaign has been asked again and again for specifics. here's running mate paul ryan just yesterday on fox news. >> there's been a traditional democrat and republican consensus lowering tax rates by broadening the tax base works. and you can -- >> i have to -- you haven't given me the math. >> well, i don't have -- it would take me too long to go through all of the math. >> chris wallace kept trying but came away empty-handed. he's not the only one. take a look. >> which of the deductions are you going to be willing to eliminate? which of the tax credits are you going to -- when are you going to be able to tell us that? >> we'll go through that process with congress. >> give me an example of a loophole that you will close. >> i can tell you that people at the high end, high income taxpayers, are going to have fewer deductions and exemptions. >> mitt romney and i based on our experience think the best way to do this is to show the framework, show the outlines of these plans
issues like cutting taxes without ballooning the deficit or burdening the middle class. the romney campaign has been asked again and again for specifics. here's running mate paul ryan just yesterday on fox news. >> there's been a traditional democrat and republican consensus lowering tax rates by broadening the tax base works. and you can -- >> i have to -- you haven't given me the math. >> well, i don't have -- it would take me too long to go through all of the math. >>...
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or if i can figure out if it adds up and not add up to the federal deficit. i think president obama needs to make his points very clear and concise and not try to give us too many soundbytes. first of all, he should say my policies helped to end the greatest economic disaster since the great depression. then, number two, he should stress that we've created more than five million jobs. those job numbers have been revived, of course. the president needs to be clear that his policies and the policies that he has proposed to congress that congress will not deal with because they're more focused on theron re-election and not focused on getting the american people back to work. he said his policies will continue to bring about jobs. it will fasten economic growth in this country, and that he has a plan to deal with the federal deficit as well. i think the president can say that. >> as long as we don't have a wardrobe malfunction, we're good. >> we'll keep it rated g. anna, what are some of the pit falls that romney has to avoid here, because, you know, both candida
or if i can figure out if it adds up and not add up to the federal deficit. i think president obama needs to make his points very clear and concise and not try to give us too many soundbytes. first of all, he should say my policies helped to end the greatest economic disaster since the great depression. then, number two, he should stress that we've created more than five million jobs. those job numbers have been revived, of course. the president needs to be clear that his policies and the...
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, but those kids you're talking about they're graduating with a big overhang of, you know, debt and deficits as well to pay off down the road. >> and unemployment levels are at historic highs among youth today. >> the problem romney has is he says if i'm elected president i will do the following things. the problem is when he was governor he actually raised the debt to the highest level per capita at any place in america. he increased tuition. and he increased taxes. those aren't the things he's saying on the campaign trail. that's just what he did as governor. >> so here's the thing i would say to you, governor. if governor romney's track record is relevant, then president obama's track record is relevant. and under president obama the debt has gone to $16 trillion -- he has racked up under his presidency more debt in a single term than every president combined before him. >> that was true with reagan, carter, nixon. >> you have to sit and deal with that track record. >> one other issue we haven't talked about yet, one of these 15-minute segments is going to be about health care. what is th
, but those kids you're talking about they're graduating with a big overhang of, you know, debt and deficits as well to pay off down the road. >> and unemployment levels are at historic highs among youth today. >> the problem romney has is he says if i'm elected president i will do the following things. the problem is when he was governor he actually raised the debt to the highest level per capita at any place in america. he increased tuition. and he increased taxes. those aren't...
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how specifically will you bring down the deficit? there's certainly a lot of room to put some and a lot of imptous for them to put some meat on the bones. >> okay. as we look for the meat, let's talk about something we've talked about that before that being swing states. romney has really whittled the president's lead to two percentage points. these are virginia numbers now. this is a poll released by "the wall street journal" nbc news, so a two-point lead for obama down from five points last month. let me show you one more graphic. you're going to see florida numbers. similar story there. now a one-point lead for obama. down from four points in september. could, candy, could this debate tonight really, you know, represent romney's best chance to catch fire? >> certainly. and i don't think it's his best chance. i think it's the beginning of his best chance, if that makes sense. i don't think we've seen -- we have seen times when debates have changed things. but there still is a lot of time and two more debates for these guys plus a v
how specifically will you bring down the deficit? there's certainly a lot of room to put some and a lot of imptous for them to put some meat on the bones. >> okay. as we look for the meat, let's talk about something we've talked about that before that being swing states. romney has really whittled the president's lead to two percentage points. these are virginia numbers now. this is a poll released by "the wall street journal" nbc news, so a two-point lead for obama down from...
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the europeans roaring back from a deficit to stage a breathtaking 4 1/2 to 13 1/2 point win. sinking a five-put putt to seal the victory. europe's tseventh victory. >> we have to listen to peiers morgan now. >>> and the super bowl champion new york giants lost to the eagles and the eagles undefeateda dramatic win against the panthers. featuring two long bombs by matt ryan in the closing minutes. extraordinaire. >> i can't believe you watched it. >> amazing powers and inabilities to watch sports even if it means sacrificing sleep. >>> another water cooler topic. arnold schwarzenegger puts himself in the hot seat answering questions about his failed marriage, his affair, his love child, and the fact that he performed same-sex marriages while in office. we're going to hear directly from arnold, coming up next. >> big. ♪ well, he's not very handsome ♪ to look at [ sighs ] ♪ oh, he's shaggy ♪ and he eats like a hog [ male announcer ] the volkswagen jetta. available with advanced keyless technology. control everything from your pocket, purse, or wherever. that's the power o
the europeans roaring back from a deficit to stage a breathtaking 4 1/2 to 13 1/2 point win. sinking a five-put putt to seal the victory. europe's tseventh victory. >> we have to listen to peiers morgan now. >>> and the super bowl champion new york giants lost to the eagles and the eagles undefeateda dramatic win against the panthers. featuring two long bombs by matt ryan in the closing minutes. extraordinaire. >> i can't believe you watched it. >> amazing powers and...
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the europeans roaring bang from a 10-4 deficit late saturday to take a tuning 14 1/2 to 13 1/2 point win. germany's martin kaymer sank a putt on the final hole to seal the victory. honestly it was all lost well before that. europe has won the seven out of the last nine ryder cups. and soledad i don't know if you had a chance to watch this debacle. a debacle embarrassing. >> yes, it was killing my poor husband. all right, john, thank you. >>> back to our top story this morning. two days until the first presidential debate. both candidates are getting last-minute preparations. "the new york times" reporting that mitt romney is coming armed on wednesday night, writing this, mr. romney's team has concluded the debates are about creating moments and has equipped him with a series of zingers that he's memorized and habeen practicing on airds since august. president obama responded to that report last night with this. >> i know folks in the media are speculating already on who's going to have the best zingers. i don't know about that. who's going to put the most points on the board. governo
the europeans roaring bang from a 10-4 deficit late saturday to take a tuning 14 1/2 to 13 1/2 point win. germany's martin kaymer sank a putt on the final hole to seal the victory. honestly it was all lost well before that. europe has won the seven out of the last nine ryder cups. and soledad i don't know if you had a chance to watch this debacle. a debacle embarrassing. >> yes, it was killing my poor husband. all right, john, thank you. >>> back to our top story this morning....
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he's got to address that likability deficit. the probable problem is, debates aren't all the best forum for that. they're good as showing you're knowledgeable but not connecting with voters. also the 47% quote. obama needs to address it -- he needs to address it firmly and get it behind him. >> and make americans think he cares about all of them. >> if you were out there with this quote saying half the country won't vote for you. you've got to address that and get it behind you. romney has more work to do. because he's down. >> right. what about president obama, what does he have to do? >> president obama is sitting on a lead. he's looking good. the race seems like it has broken. his strategy will be to sort of play defense. not make any mistakes, play it very safe. he's got to stick to the strategy, which is emphasize the positives in the last four years and do what he's been doing, attack romney, attack him on that 47%. the other thing obama has to do, he's done a little bit but he hasn't to a certain degree is lay out specifi
he's got to address that likability deficit. the probable problem is, debates aren't all the best forum for that. they're good as showing you're knowledgeable but not connecting with voters. also the 47% quote. obama needs to address it -- he needs to address it firmly and get it behind him. >> and make americans think he cares about all of them. >> if you were out there with this quote saying half the country won't vote for you. you've got to address that and get it behind you....
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>> he is talking about the economy, talking about the deficit, talking about four years of president obama would be detrimental to the country. it's pretty plain and simple. president obama and republican nominee mitt romney are laying low today because they're getting ready to prepare for the debate, so it's the number 2s on the campaign trail. right behind me here, here's paul ryan stumping here in new hampshire, a crucial battleground state. when he's done here, he goes to ohio later today. another very big important battleground state. and that's the whole idea here, as the president and mitt romney get ready for the debate. paul ryan and vice president joe biden are on the campaign trail. specific new hampshire. the race here is kind of close. the most recent poll shows president obama with a five-point advantage over mitt romney. definitely a very close contest here in new hampshire. this is a state that may not know paul ryan very well, but knows mitt romney very well, who was governor of neighboring massachusetts. he owns a vacation home here in new hampshire. spends a lot of
>> he is talking about the economy, talking about the deficit, talking about four years of president obama would be detrimental to the country. it's pretty plain and simple. president obama and republican nominee mitt romney are laying low today because they're getting ready to prepare for the debate, so it's the number 2s on the campaign trail. right behind me here, here's paul ryan stumping here in new hampshire, a crucial battleground state. when he's done here, he goes to ohio later...
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. >> $1.3 trillion deficit you definitely need something to bring that deficit down. bring the national debt down at some point down the road. once there is a balanced budget. who knows when that would be. most people assume nothing is going to happen as far as the fiscal cliff is concerned between now and november 6. but afterwards in that lame duck session between november 6 and december 31, something will happen. are you among those who will agree -- agree that the fiscal cliff will be avoided? >> yes. i think it will be avoided. i mean, you know, depends on the election. you know. if governor romney wins it is likely -- would kick the can into next year. leave everything the same for a few months. let -- the new president come into office and get it together. probably in the spring. president obama wins the election, then right after the election, lame duck, the clock will start ticking and he will be under a lot of pressure to do something. let me say one other thing. you know, i think the most likely scenario is that we are actually going to have to go into next
. >> $1.3 trillion deficit you definitely need something to bring that deficit down. bring the national debt down at some point down the road. once there is a balanced budget. who knows when that would be. most people assume nothing is going to happen as far as the fiscal cliff is concerned between now and november 6. but afterwards in that lame duck session between november 6 and december 31, something will happen. are you among those who will agree -- agree that the fiscal cliff will be...